TikTok’s meteoric rise has reshaped the beauty industry and redefined consumer behavior. Since its US launch in September 2023, TikTok Shop has become a social commerce juggernaut thriving on authenticity and relatability, with user-generated content often outperforming traditional advertising.Social commerce is projected to grow by double digits through at least 2030. A notable portion of that growth will be attributed to TikTok, according to Emarketer’s inaugural forecast for TikTok Shop.The platform grew its US sales by 407.0% in 2024 and by another 108.0% this year, reaching $15.82 billion, fueling the rapid growth of the e-commerce subsector.TikTok’s ability to blend shopping and entertainment is turning the platform into an e-commerce powerhouse commanding 18.2% of total social commerce in the US, with that share expected to hit 24.1% by 2027. While Emarketer does not break out the other social shopping platforms, the other 75% is dominated mainly by Facebook Marketplace and Instagram.Oscar Orozco, Senior Forecasting Director at Emarketer, said,“Health, wellness, and beauty are top categories, followed by accessories, household items, fashion, and cosmetics, according to our research. TikTok Shop’s best-selling items combine low price points, spur-of-the-moment appeal, trendiness, and they rely heavily on strong creator amplification.”TikTok Shop’s e-commerce growth will increase by double digits through the end of our forecast period in 2029. Its sales will surpass $20 billion in 2026 and reach over $30 billion in 2028.